Environmental Issues May Have Contributed to Syrian Conflict

Women working in a field in Syria in 2010.

               With each passing year, the debate about climate change tends to gain momentum. As more and more examples of the negative effects of climate change appear, the need for discussion grows more imminent. Yet the bulk of the debate still lies on whether or not climate change is being driven by anthropomorphic activity or natural climate cycles. However, nearly all scientific evidence points to a recent, and drastic change brought about by a newly industrializing world, especially when considering atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses . But one of the problems that lead some to doubt climate change is the disproportion in how much different areas have been effected so far, with the arctic receiving the largest proportion of climate warming. It is for this reason, as well, that I believe we as a society have an obligation to address climate change at an international level. Many of the “developed” countries in the world pride themselves on their commitment to human rights, but fail to recognize the human connection of their environmental actions, likely because they effect people in areas unseen by the general public, like the Inuit, as discussed in the readings of Watt-Cloutier. These effects of climate change, such as sustained drought, can have direct and dire effects on human populations, and can ultimately lead to destabilization of entire areas. It is this climate driven destabilization that some believe led to the current war in Syria. To understand this argument, we must look at the long lasting drought Syria experienced before the uprising in 2011. 

The Tigris-Euphrates Basin

               To set the scene, we must know that Syria, along with Iraq, Turkey, and western Iran, lie in what is known as the Tigris-Euphrates Basin, and that since 1975, Turkey’s increasing usage of hydropower and dam construction has led to a 40% decrease in water flow to Syria, and during that time, the Syrian population rose by over 200%. On top of that, from 2006 to 2009 Syria suffered a severe drought that is estimated to have displaced up to 1.5 million rural farmers as they were forced to relocate to urban areas to find work. From 2003 to 2009, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), operated by NASA and Germany’s aerospace center, found that the Tigris-Euphrates Basin was only second to Northern India in the speed of their water losses, amounting to about 117 million acre-feet of stored fresh water, or roughly equivalent to the amount of water in the Dead Sea over the 6 year period. While there are many contributing factors to a situation such as what is seen now in Syria, some experts believe the Syrian drought, and subsequent unemployment and displacement contributed to the escalation of conflict that evolved into the Syrian civil war, and I believe at the very least, it could be said that it contributed to the rising tensions in the country at the time.

               Since the war began, the country has been devastated, highly destabilized, and severely split. Therefore, it did not surprise me when I was unable to find any environmental groups who are currently working in Syria. Up until 2012, the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) was located in one of Syria’s oldest cities, Aleppo, and operated a seed vault that specialized in seeds from crops adapted to arid and dry environments, pivotal species for deserts or drought-stricken lands, the likes of which are expected to increase if climate change continues at its current pace. However, due to the war, ICARDA could no longer continue to grow and distribute seeds to other nations, and in 2012 it sent about 87% of its collection to the Svalbard Global Seed Vault, and ICARDA moved its headquarters to Beirut. But, as you may have seen in recent headlines, a couple weeks ago ICARDA requested the first withdrawal from the Svalbard Global Seed Vault, and asked for approximately 40% of its initial deposit, which is a sign that they are beginning to get back up on their feet. Unfortunately, the seeds won’t be going back to Aleppo though, where some of humanity’s first farms were started. ICARDA is currently debating whether to build a new facility in Morocco or Lebanon. It is an unfortunate consequence that an arid region directly affected by climate change led to the removal of a facility uniquely inclined to help withstand the effects of climate change on dry and arid areas.